What Payment Could Really Become - This scenario envisions a world in which all transactions are electronic. The Human Way to Interact With Technology - Gartner describes this one as "a world in which people interact a lot more naturally with technology." We're already seeing this take place with dramatic things like Apple's Siri and Google Assistant, but even subtler things like Microsoft's Kinect demonstrate that a keyboard and mouse are no longer the only way or even the best way to work with a computer.
Smarter Things - with autonomous vehicles, machine-to-machine communication services, mesh networking, mobile robots, Big Data, and complex event processing, we'll soon be living in a world in which electronic devices are all smart and connected to the Internet.īig Data and Global Scale Computing at Small Prices - sounds to me like general acceptance of offerings like Amazon's Web Service or Google's App Engine. HTML5, Cloud Computing, better batteries, smartphones and media tablets, and virtual networks are seen as the key ingredients to making this possible. So, now that we all have a more realistic level of expectation for change, what exactly is Gartner predicting for the future? Well, according to Gartner, "The theme of this year's Hype Cycle is the concept of 'tipping points.' We are at an interesting moment, a time when many of the scenarios we've been talking about for a long time are almost becoming reality." More specifically, Gartner points to the following trends as being on the verge of maturity:Īny Channel, Any Device, Anywhere - very soon, any electronic service will be available on any device, at any time. If you haven't ever considered the world from that point of view, then I suspect you'll feel much the same as I did. Still, visually beholding the evolution of dozens of innovations this way for the first time was a gobsmack moment for me. In retrospect, this isn't even remotely surprising, since the whole purpose of the Gartner Group is to research, analyze, and report on emerging technology. What I didn't realize until recently was that there was a powerful visualization to go along with the term, and that the Gartner Group actually tracks the progress of a huge range of tech innovations along the graph. It neatly captures the elements of both human psychology and technical evolution that accompany every innovation we've seen over the past couple of decades - the over-inflated expectations, inevitable disappointment, and eventual adoption.
The term "hype cycle" has been around since 1995, and I'm sure that just about every GeekDad reader has heard it and even used it dozens of times over the years.
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